Major resistance level AND Trap

Bayanin Hoton

 Wannan hoton jadawalin cinikin kasuwar canjin kuɗi ne (Forex chart), wanda ke nuna motsin farashin Dalar Australiya akan Dalar Amurka (AUD/USD). An saita jadawalin akan awa huɗu-huɗu (240 minutes ko 4-Hour timeframe), wanda ke nufin kowanne kyandir (candlestick) da ka gani a jikin jadawalin yana wakiltar motsin farashi na tsawon awa huɗu ne.

Ga cikakken bayanin kowane bangare na hoton:

Sharhin Mahimman Kalmomi da Alamomin da ke Cikin Hoton

1. Major Resistance Level (Babban Matsayin Tsayayya)

• Ma'anarsa: Wannan layin kamar jinkoso ne ko kuma rufi ga farashi. Wuri ne da farashin ke zuwa ya kasa wucewa sama, sai ya dawo ƙasa. A wannan matsayin, masu sayarwa sun fi masu siya ƙarfi, wanda hakan ke tura farashin ya koma ƙasa. Idan ka lura a hoton, farashin ya je wannan layin sau uku amma ya kasa haurawa.

• Muhimmancinsa: Yana nuna maka wuri mai ƙarfi da zaka iya tunanin sayarwa (sell), saboda ana sa ran farashin zai juyo daga nan.

2. Support Area (Yankin Tallafi)

• Ma'anarsa: Wannan yankin kamar bene ne ga farashi. Wuri ne da idan farashin ya faɗo zuwa nan, yakan samu tallafi ya kasa wucewa ƙasa, sai ya koma sama. A wannan yankin, masu siya sun fi masu sayarwa ƙarfi. An kira shi "Area" (yanki) maimakon "Level" (matsayi) saboda ba layi ɗaya tak ba ne, yanki ne da farashin zai iya shiga ya juyo.

• Muhimmancinsa: Yana nuna maka wuri mai kyau da zaka iya tunanin siya (buy), saboda ana sa ran farashin zai tashi daga nan.

3. Small Local Structure (Ƙananan Tsare-tsare)

• Ma'anarsa: Waɗannan wasu ƙananan matsayai ne na tallafi da tsayayya (minor support and resistance) da suke samuwa a tsakanin babban matsayin tsayayya da babban yankin tallafi. Suna aiki ne na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Kamar dai matattakala ne a tsakanin benaye biyu.

• Muhimmancinsa: Suna taimakawa wajen nuna maka inda farashi zai iya tsayawa na ɗan lokaci kafin ya ci gaba da tafiya zuwa ga manyan wuraren (Major Resistance ko Support Area).

4. Trap - Crowded Trade (Tarko - Cinikin da ya Cika)

• Ma'anarsa: Wannan shine wuri mafi haɗari kuma mafi muhimmanci da ya kamata ka fahimta. "Trap" yana nufin tarko. Abin da ya faru a nan shine, farashin ya ɗan haura sama da babban matsayin tsayayya (Major resistance level), wanda hakan ya yaudari 'yan kasuwa da yawa suyi tunanin cewa farashin zai ci gaba da tashi, sai suka shiga siya (buy) da yawa. Amma maimakon ya ci gaba da tashi, sai farashin ya faɗo da ƙarfi.

• Muhimmancinsa: Wannan yana nuna cewa ba koda yaushe bane idan farashi ya fasa wani matsayi (breakout) to zai ci gaba da tafiya. Wani lokacin tarko ne manyan 'yan kasuwa (banks, institutions) ke kafawa domin su samu damar sayarwa da yawa a farashi mai kyau. Ana kiransa "Crowded trade" saboda mutane da yawa sun shiga wannan cinikin a lokaci guda, kuma duk an kama su a tarkon.

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Fassarar Abin da ke Faruwa a Jadawalin Gabaɗaya

Abin da wannan jadawalin yake nuna mana shine kasuwar da ba ta da wata alkibla takamaimai; tana yawo ne a tsakanin wani babban yankin tallafi da babban matsayin tsayayya. Wannan yanayin ana kiransa Ranging Market ko Consolidation.

1. Farashin ya taɓa Major resistance level ya dawo ƙasa.

2. Ya je Support area ya samu tallafi ya koma sama.

3. Ya cigaba da wannan yanayin na sama da ƙasa a tsakanin waɗannan wurare biyu, yana samar da Small local structures a hanya.

4. A ƙarshe, ya yi yunkurin fasa Major resistance level ta sama, amma sai ya zama tarko (trap).

5. Bayan tarkon, farashin ya faɗo da ƙarfi sosai, har ma ya fasa Support area zuwa ƙasa, wanda hakan ke nuna cewa yanzu masu sayarwa sun samu rinjaye a kasuwar.

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Ka'idoji da Darussa da Zaka Koya a Matsayin Ɗan Koyo

Daga wannan hoto, ga wasu muhimman ka'idoji da zaka bi wajen shiga kasuwa irin wannan:

1. Ka Gane Yanayin Kasuwa: Kafin ka shiga kasuwa, abu na farko shine ka duba ka gane yanayinta. Shin tana tashi ne (Uptrend)? Tana faɗuwa ne (Downtrend)? Ko kuma tana yawo a wuri ɗaya ne (Ranging) kamar yadda yake a wannan hoton? A kasuwa mai yawo a wuri ɗaya, dabarar itace ka saya a yankin tallafi (support) sannan ka sayar a matsayin tsayayya (resistance).

2. Kada Ka Gaggauta Shiga "Breakout": Wato idan kaga farashi ya fasa wani muhimmin matsayi, kada kayi gaggawar shiga ciniki. Ka jira ka ga tabbaci (confirmation). A misalin tarkon nan, da ka jira kyandir na awa huɗu ya rufe da kyau a saman layin, da kuma wani kyandir ya biyo bayansa, da ka gane cewa ba tabbas ne. Jira shine mabuɗin nasara.

3. Yi Haƙuri: Babban kuskuren masu koyo shine shiga ciniki a tsakiyar hanya. Mafi kyawun wuri shine ka jira farashi ya zo wuraren da ka zana (support ko resistance). Idan farashi bai je inda kake so ba, to ka barshi kawai. Kada ka bi kasuwa, ita ce ya kamata ta zo inda kake jiranta.

4. Kare Kanka Daga Faɗuwa (Risk Management): Koda yaushe, idan ka shiga ciniki, ka sanya Stop Loss. Misali, idan ka sayar a Major resistance level, ya kamata ka sanya Stop Loss ɗinka a ɗan sama da wannan layin. Idan kuma ka saya a Support area, sai ka sanya Stop Loss ɗinka a ɗan ƙasan wannan yankin. Wannan zai kare maka jarinka idan hasashenka bai zama daidai ba.

A taƙaice, wannan hoton babbar darasi ne akan muhimmancin fahimtar matsayai na tallafi da tsayayya, da kuma haɗarin da ke tattare da faɗawa tarkon da ake kira "false breakout". Ka kiyaye waɗannan darussa, kuma koda yaushe ka yi amfani da haƙuri da ilimi wajen yanke shawara a kasuwa.